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Thursday 18 March 2010

Shepway Lib Dems - Dead as a Dodo or Phoenix From the Flames?

Opinion piece for my own amusement - feel free to comment, email, etc.

What to make of the Shepway Liberal Democrat party? Their spectacular and widely publicised fall from grace has seen them go from losing a 27 strong majority on the district council to a six councillor rump in a few years.
Disastrous policies, splits, defections and bitter spats have dogged the group. Chewing through PPCs like they were going out of fashion has left slim Liberal hopes of ending Conservative control of the parliamentary seat in tatters.

Leader Lynne Beaumont has declined to give figures of how far membership has fallen. Six local councillors come from three families, perhaps a sign of of a seriously limited membership to draw candidates from, with other amid rumours circulating of the membership halving or worse in 3 years.

As if this wasn’t bad enough, at the time of writing several key aspects of Lib Dem policy seem destined to drive them further onto the rocks of Shepway politics.

Opposing Dungeness C and Lydd Airport, the Lib Dems are accused of stifling development at a time when the area is crying out for jobs. While Lib Dem claims that their green eco-tourism initiatives will provide jobs are unproven, could they be playing a masterful long game, accepting crushing defeat this year in the hope of making headway in the long run and rising from the fallout of both issues (pun fully intended)?

The Lib Dems are adamantly opposed to Lydd Airport’s expansion. This is a contentious issue, and it is hard to see if any side really has the ‘silent majority’. If it goes ahead it is far from a guaranteed success, with no infrastructure to serve it, a possible third runway at Heathrow not far away and nearby Manston struggling. If more of the Marsh is concreted over for no discernable benefits the Lib Dems will be well positioned to make political headway.

The issue of Dungeness could represent a similar plan. Unlike the airport, it seems the majority of the population would like to see a new power station. No matter how strong this wish nor how doggedly the council fight, it is hard to see any government going back on the decision not to consider Dungeness – the national Conservative site does not return any results for a search of the word ‘Dungeness’ and the wisdom of building a nuclear reactor on a marsh barely above sea level with purported sea level rises is questionable.

Therefore, in a similar vain to the Lydd Airport tactic, opposition to the power station now could see short term losses accepted for long term gains.

Politically, the Lib Dems are attacking local Conservatives for not having a plan B. Making ‘Green’ a centrepiece of her campaign, Ms Beaumont has pressed ahead with an ‘Eco-tourism’ initiative. A recent meeting of stakeholders had a somewhat low turnout and there was hostility to the ideas expressed in the room - hardly an impressive start.

However, should the council be unsuccessful in getting the Dungeness decision reversed and the Lydd Airport expansion be a disaster, no doubt the Lib Dems will crow about their Eco-initiatives till the cows come home and make some headway.

Several other factors should be borne in mid. Although a shadow of their former selves, they are hard to ignore.

In Ms Beaumont they have a PPC who is prepared to make it personal, dismissing rival Damian Collins as a ‘wannabe MP’ and highlighting her ‘localness,’ a tactic we can expect more of. Association Chairman Russell Tillson has answered these charges while Mr Collins remains tight-lipped – these may be uncomfortable home truths for the dead cert.

With no other job, Ms Beaumont can pour all her efforts into campaigning. She is unlikely to win, but she is raising the group’s profile ahead of the local elections of 2011.

The Lib Dems also appear to have the upper hand on the Web, with a regularly updated site. Cleverly mixing Lib Dem announcements and community news, the site acts as a newswire, bringing visitors to peruse the Pravda-like articles, which cut out opposition councillors from events and spin defeats into victories in a manner worthy of any AgitProp department.

Lib Dem web guru Tim Prater has said the site is simply about what Liberal Democrats are doing, which is clearly rubbish.

A story on the site about grants awarded to local groups cheerfully opens with the line ‘As a County Councillor, I've had no say in any of these bids or grants, but thought they may be of interest!’ This comes slightly before an announcement of a talk on the Apollo 13 mission (not given by a Lib Dem) and numerous announcements of roadworks (no info on which councillors are out in the road gangs).

In addition to the site, every household in Shepway is receiving fancy, glossy, colourful flyers. Rarely a week goes past without Lib Dem councillors staring angrily from the pages of the local rags. Their twittering is almost constant. All of this gives them a presence that far outweighs their six member minority on the District council.

The key is turning this into votes. There have been some successes. The Lib Dems just about retain control of Folkestone Town Council. Tim Prater now has a seat on the County Council, though a case of something nice should have been sent to UKIP for this – UKIP split the Conservative vote, allowing Mr Prater to squeeze to victory by 11 votes.

Real success, which would be control of the District Council or returning an MP is still some way off. Whether the Liberal Democrat group can increase members and councillors with the current incumbents in charge, or whether history will repeat itself with splits further splits in the groupremains to be seen.

Should they be able to forge a united party, 2011 could mark the start of a Lib Dem resurgence.*

Err...if anyone reads this post-election, I'd like to point out the date and this was written BEFORE the Lib Dems jumped into bed with the Conservative Party. In fairness Ms Beaumont, on a visit back home I noted Ms Beaumont has decried the U-turn on education fees.

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