Dark Clouds Gathering in Shepway’s Conservative Blue Sky?

Note - This is pure speculation for my own entertainment. Please feel free to comment, discuss, agree, disagree. (Please see riposte from Conservative Association Chairman Russel Tillson)

One might infer from the opening lines of Local Conservative Association Chairman Russell Tillson’s New Year statement that Conservatives had celebrated hard welcoming in 2010, and who could blame them? 2010 looks to be a bumper year for the Tories with a probable parliamentary seat and continued dominance of the local council.

Nationally, their candidate for the Folkestone and Hythe parliament seat (which has always been blue) is Damain Collins, a man of considerable pedigree, Oxford educated and listed as ‘one to watch’ in major publications. Coming from a background in PR and having previously contested Northampton North in a national election, Mr Collins has made quick work of blogging, tweeting, campaigning and meeting his way onto the local political scene.

His sitting-in on Michael Howard’s column and impressive runs of appearing in local rags has raised a few eyebrows from Lib Dems and others on the issue of fairness, but who will remember once the votes are cast and Mr Collins is off to Westminster?

To his credit, he is carving out a niche as an individual rather than merely a replacement for the incumbent Mr Howard, no mean feat given Mr Howard’s 27 years as MP. Carving out a niche might be imperative after the expenses scandals of last year, which saw Michael Howard justifying claims for gardening and housework. Sadly, we will not get to see the true effect that has had on Mr Howard’s support, as he won’t be standing. Mr Collins and all at Tory HQ must be hoping any effect is minimal.

The feeling among observers is that a prime Conservative asset has been moved to a safe Shepway seat to get to Westminster. However, Lib Dem Parliamentary Candidate Cllr Beaumont’s opening statement makes the most of her 25 years in the local area, perhaps a flavour of things to come. With a directorship in London and his wife a councillor in Westminster city council, questions over Mr Collins’ commitment to Shepway are likely to dog his campaign and this could be Mr Collins’ ‘Achilles Heel.’. How he handles these stories, should they generate a negative reaction among the voters, may be cruicial and at times the local Conservative Association’s none too delicate announcements may fan the flames. It is difficult to see him losing but the last year in politics could lead to more surprises than normal on results night (or day).

Looking ahead to the 2011 local elections, Cllr Tillson is bullish about maintaining control of the district council. Ending the year with 37 out of 46 councillors the Conservatives must be in a rock solid position. Right?

Locally, as 2009 drew to a close Shepway Conservatives were gifted the decision of the government not to site a new power station at Dungeness. Basking in the (nuclear) glow of righteous indignation, they were quick to protest an unpopular decision. Even the Labour Candidate joined in. The opening of the High Speed rail link allowed Conservatives further positive press coverage, ending the year on a high.

The good end to the year glossed over the Leas Lifts stories and allegations of non-transparency which sent plenty of negative press to the Conservatives.

While so many councillors ensures control, splits could open. A few years ago a controlling group of 29 Lib Dems went into meltdown. Several Lib Dems crossed the floor to Conservatives or formed their own groups. Reasons are different depending on who you talk to, but it is hard to believe that all of the Conservative group are dyed-in-the-wool true blues.

While Conservatives vote together in Council meetings, sources say that discussions within the group over the voting can be long and hard. Sometimes councillors look uneasy as they are called to vote on contentious issues or struggle to respond to accusations of being ‘non-transparent’ such as last year’s changes to the constitution.

It is not difficult to imagine a series of difficult decisions in the next two years resulting in councillors leaving the Conservative group. Conservative Hythe Town Councillor Richard Carroll resigned in October 2009 after the District Council planning Committee voted through the Hythe Imperial plans. More councillors may follow Mr Carroll’s lead. With local elections scheduled for 2011, there’s plenty of time for hard decisions to come up – by then even the Lydd Airport applications may have been decided!

Lib Dem and other interested people claim to know several Conservative councillors who want to leave the group, but can’t for fear of destroying their own vote through criss-crossing the floor. Some commentators repeatedly assert that a return of former Shepway Lib Dem Toby Philpott, who left in fractious circumstances, as an independent PPC would be worse for the Conservatives than the Shepway Lib Dem group.

If Mr Philpott were to return to local politics, councillors who crossed the floor as a result of the fallout when he left the group could then split from the Conservatives to form a new body. For now that is pure speculation.

Other factors may play a part. Council Leader Robert Bliss lost his seat on the County Council due to UKIP taking a large section of the Conservative vote. While UKIP look unlikely to win seats nationally or locally their effect as a vote splitter could have an effect in Shepway. Of course, UKIP are not the only potential vote splitters, with the BNP having a presence in the area.

Finally, such a dominant group will naturally take most of the blame when things go wrong, in some cases unfairly. If the Hythe Sainsbury’s is a disaster, will voters realise that it was Lib Dem votes ‘wot won it’?

Shepway Conservatives are in a strong position, but as the Lib Dems found, the bigger they are the harder they fall.